Donald Trump’s proposed immigration crackdown, including mass deportations, has been criticized as potentially inflationary, but experts warn it could also worsen the issue of an aging population in the U.S.
Immigration has long been viewed as a solution to America’s declining birth rate, which contributes to an aging population and a shrinking workforce. Curtailing immigration could accelerate these demographic shifts, says Alan Berube, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution.
Trump’s campaign promises include deporting the estimated 11 million unauthorized migrants in the U.S., banning refugees from certain countries, and reinstating travel bans. These policies could significantly reduce immigration flows.
A Brookings projection suggests that if net migration drops to “low” levels—defined as 350,000 to 600,000 migrants per year—the U.S. population could shrink by 4% by 2100. A complete border closure would lead to a dramatic 32% population decline by the end of the century.
